After a minor setback in AdEx during the first half of the year, the TV news industry is likely to see a recovery during the upcoming festive period and elections.

According to the ‘Television Advertising Quarterly Report Jan-Mar 2023’, in comparison to the previous two years, Jan-Mar 2023 witnessed 4% decline in ad volumes. Ad volumes during Jan-Mar 2022 witnessed de-growth of 1% compared to Jan-Mar 2021.

While the H1 remained flat for most of the news channels as compared to the previous year same period, industry leaders are expecting around 10-15% growth in the advertising revenue during the upcoming elections in five states later this year and the general elections early next year.

“While H1 was comparatively flat, Q1 witnessed some green shoots on the back of Union Budget and Karnataka state elections,” said Gaurav Dhawan, Chief Revenue Officer, Times Network.

According to Dhawan, H2 looks promising on account of improved consumer sentiment, state and assembly elections, and several new launches planned in categories such as automobiles, handsets, consumer durables, etc. Also, renewed energy in BFSI, IPOs and government spends will make H2 favourable, he said.

“State elections as a lead-up to assembly elections will capture key growth. We expect 15-20% growth in ad sales this year,” Dhawan added.

Adding to the predictions, Sidharth Newatia, National Revenue Head, News18 Network told e4m that the kind of growth that one sees during elections cannot be compared to any other period.

“Elections for news are the most important revenue driver in any given year and this year will be no different. We are already seeing a surge in the queries over the election programming sponsorship options and it should reach fever pitch closer to the dates,” added Newatia.

According to the Broadcast Audience Research Council (BARC) India data sourced by e4m, the Free Commercial Time (FCT) consumption has grown by 3 million when compared with H1 of last year.

Deleise Ross, Associate Vice President and Cluster Head – Integrated Media, DDB Mudra Group, explains, “If we look at the FCT consumed in H1 of 2022 vs H1 of 2023 with all news channels, there is a 1% growth in the same.”

Ross added that the news genre is going to play a major role among media plans across audience segments, including the female viewers. “It’s not only the elections but also the festive season followed by news updates on cricket events like Asia Cup/World Cup that will spike the consumption,” Ross mentions.

Ross expects at least a 5-7% spike in the ad growth with the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

“Usually, state-level elections spike the ratings by 200% & rates hike by 30-50%. This year, the Lok Sabha elections will be different than usual with every one’s eye glued on the TV screen for quick updates,” she added.

The TAM report also states that during Jan-Mar 2023, News and GEC switched their positions. GEC was the leading channel genre with 30% share of ad volumes. News genre’s share dropped by 4-25% share compared to 29% during Jan-March 22.

According to Newatia, the second half is looking extremely good and not just because of elections, but the festive period ahead. He said, “Diwali being in mid-November makes the festive period longer this year. Elections are also happening in five states in the November–December time frame, and general elections will happen during April – May, which coincidentally, are also high AdEx months. So the second half is looking very buoyant.”

Specifically talking about the Hindi general news, he said that H1 was extremely good. He shared that the network has been able to take a larger share of the advertisement pie because of our channel rankings.

The industry experts expect that this could be a good opportunity for the luxury brands to advertise during elections. Ross added, “This year could present a good opportunity for the high-end goods and luxury brands, as India is expected to emerge as one of the fastest growing markets in the next five years. This provides advertisers a chance to move beyond glossy magazines and infotainment. Additionally, it can also bolster brand growth in India's tier 2 markets, creating new opportunities for Hindi news channels as well. Some of the other key categories driving the ad volumes include spices, cement and automobiles.”

In fact, during Karnataka elections, news channels were certain that there would be a jump in ad revenue and some of them predicted it to be around 20-30% for the national channels while the growth expected for the local channels was double.

Amol Dighe, CEO, Investments & Business Development at Madison Media, said that for TV news channels, the build-up to next year will be good. There are state elections at the end of this year and Lok Sabha elections early next year so governments will be spending a lot on welfare schemes and will also spend on advertisements. News channels become an important factor during elections and during the World Cup also. So, this year should be much better than last year for TV news channels as the advertising volume will go up and hence the revenue will go up.”

Speaking of the Hindi news genre category, Newatia expects Hindi News should witness a double-digit growth this year. “Given that it is an election year, the key driver will be the monetization of the general elections as well as the five state elections, which are going to happen in the November-December time period.”