At the release of the Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2025, industry leaders debated the future of free-to-air (FTA) television and its impact on pay TV, highlighting shifts in viewership trends and the strategic moves of major broadcasters.
Moderated by Vanita Keswani, CEO of Madison Media Sigma, the session featured insights from Manish Shah, Founder & CEO of Goldmines Telefilms; Akshat Singhal, Head of Dangal Play; and Ashish Sehgal, Chief Growth Officer - Digital & Broadcast Revenue, Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited.
Shah began by taking a firm stance on the topic, asserting that free TV would surpass pay TV in the coming decade. "Most will say pay TV will remain ahead, but I believe that in the next 10 years, free TV will overtake pay," he said, citing data on television penetration across India.
Highlighting regional disparities, he noted, "Tamil Nadu leads with 97.7% penetration due to the government’s free TV initiative, followed by Karnataka at 92.9% and Kerala at 90%. Meanwhile, UP, Bihar, and MP lag behind, with penetration levels below 45%. In UP alone, 23 million homes still lack a television." Shah pointed to a significant decline in pay TV subscribers, saying, "From 2019 to 2024, pay TV fell from 133 million to 111 million homes, a drop of nearly 16%, while free TV grew from 38 million to 49 million homes, marking a 26% rise." He projected that by 2030, pay TV could shrink further to 81 million homes, while free TV could expand to 57 million.
He shared a recent development to support his point. "The big four pay broadcasters—Zee Anmol, Star Utsav, Sony Pal, and Colors Rishtey—are returning to free TV after three years. This move could result in pay TV and free TV reaching equal footing by 2030." Shah outlined the factors driving pay TV’s decline, stating, "Free TV channels rely heavily on pay network content. Shows like Adalat and CID keep free networks afloat. Additionally, broadcasters are making content easily accessible on OTT—sometimes even before it airs on satellite TV. If a commuter can watch a show on their mobile in the morning, why would they wait until the evening to see it on television?"
Movie premieres on free TV further fuel this trend. "Take Gadar 2—it aired on Zee Cinema and was on Zee Anmol within seven days. Similarly, Bade Miyan Chote Miyan moved from Sony Max to Sony One in just three months. When premium content reaches free TV so quickly, why would audiences pay?"
Shah emphasized Goldmines Telefilms’ unique approach, saying, "Our key titles have never been on any OTT platform. We believe movie viewing is a natural habit, while general entertainment is fragmented. Goldmines has focused on converting snack viewing into appointment viewing. Even today, 50% of our top movies are available only on television, which is why we remain the number one movie channel in India."
Singhal, representing Dangal TV, took the stage next, providing insights into the evolving content landscape, challenging the traditional distinction between free and pay TV. He highlighted the audience’s primary focus on quality content rather than the platform.
"FTA and Pay are just B2B jargon. Consumers want to watch good content, whatever they like, and they don't care if it's on pay TV or FTV," he stated. "Our job is to make sure that the best stories and production values are given to them, and they share our appreciation by giving their time. We bring entertainment to everyone, and this is the only strategy we had any chance of success with when we started the business."
Reflecting on Dangal TV’s journey since its launch in 2014, he spoke about the challenges faced in placement, positioning, and sustaining growth. "Our journey has not been easy, and it's been years of tweaking, learning, and being patient with the business. I believe we must break this myth of free or pay as it only suits some companies. Our content is appreciated across India and Bharat." He noted Dangal TV’s strong position in the Hindi GEC space. "We are in the top two TV channels in Hindi GEC in terms of time spent in urban and rural, as we aspire with continual efforts on good storytelling. And now we are number one."
Citing industry projections, he emphasised the role of ad-supported models in shaping the future of content consumption. "As per Omdia, advertising-supported video revenue will be bigger than TTV and SVOD put together worldwide by 2030. And India is clearly a price-sensitive market. Advertising is our main source of revenue, and we work hard on driving growth for advertisers and partners by giving them reach and brand-safe content." He also stressed the investments Dangal TV makes in original programming. "A lot of advertisers need to know that Dangal is only built on fresh content. We work with the best creative talent and production houses in the country. In fact, many investments in content are more than many pay channels when it comes to like-to-like programming."
Singhal pointed to the network’s strong rural performance, stating, "While we deliver well in rural, we also do great in urban markets. We have a 26% share of rural GRPs, while the number one urban channel has 21% of urban GRPs." He highlighted the rapid growth of rural consumption, noting that 15% of FMCG volume and value now comes from rural India. "With great incentives provided to rural India by the government in this budget, this will only help in the growth of consumption for all categories of business." Concluding his part, he reinforced the idea that content is king, irrespective of the platform. "At the end, I would just like to mention, audiences don't choose content based on which TV or platform. They just like to watch content that they love and relate to. Our responsibility is to produce great content and work with the best producers."
The session was taken forward by Sehgal, agreeing with Singhal and challenging the notion that FTA television would replace pay TV, calling it a "misnomer" and emphasizing that content remains the driving force behind viewership. "I think this whole topic about FTA versus pay TV is just a misnomer," he said. "Content is the king, and eyeballs move to where the content is." He dismissed the idea that one format would eliminate the other. "FTA cannot kill pay TV. A linear form of television will never kill another linear form of television—it will keep changing its form."
Highlighting data on household penetration, Sehgal underscored the role of economic growth in shifting viewing habits. "Today we have 210 million households. We are currently at 40 to 45 million total free TV households. There are about 70 to 100 million who are no TV homes. So they are going to come into the ecosystem, and definitely, those people will first upgrade to a free TV. But that doesn’t mean they will remain at the lowest rung of poverty. They are going to grow up." He pointed to India’s rising per capita income as a sign of increasing content consumption. "We are in the range of about $3,000 to $5,000 per capita income right now. That means people will start upgrading themselves to enjoy more premium content and entertainment."
Sehgal also discussed the evolving role of pay TV, noting its intersection with connected TV (CTV). "Pay TV is not only going to be primarily linear. CTV is growing, and that is going to be the game changer. The transmission or streaming of content will take a different shape. So pay will align with CTV to grow, but the large screen will continue to hold the attention of people." He dismissed the idea of competition between different formats, arguing that all mediums would co-exist. "We are not going to kill each other, nor will one form of entertainment kill any other form of transmission. Each
medium will survive in its own way. However, the content will decide how, where, and what." Delving deeper into the FTA-pay TV dynamic, he outlined the strengths and limitations of free television. "What went well for FTA was government support, affordability, and no additional monthly spend. But what fell short was premium content, which Dangal has started to provide in the last one, one and a half years. However, it is still not enough for the consumer. They are still seeking more and more premium content—but then they have to pay for it."
Sehgal suggested that strategies should focus on transitioning free TV viewers into paying subscribers. "If you want to offer premium content, then you have to make them start to pay, even if it is smaller. Maybe we need to start looking at ways to upgrade free TV viewers to pay TV, which will help the overall television industry." Discussing content trends, he stressed the importance of high-quality regional programming and non-fiction formats. "Regionalization is very important. Any content to grow must engage audiences in their own language and cultural nuances. TV content providers have done this well, and even web series and movie producers are struggling to break this habit."
He added, "Non-fiction strategies have been weak over the last few years. We have not come up with many ideas beyond sports or big movies. Non-fiction content continues to excite audiences and could strengthen the pay TV ecosystem." Turning to the media landscape, Sehgal critiqued advertising strategies that prioritize efficiency over impact. "There is an over-focus on achieving planning efficiencies. Advertisers put FTA and digital in media plans, but they lose out on quality viewers who are in the middle basket—the paying GEC or cinema audience. Media planners need to rethink their approach."
He emphasized the enduring power of television advertising. "You cannot ignore 160-170 million households. You cannot ignore the power of delivering a message to hundreds of millions of people at once. Digital gives sharp targeting, but the trust factor of TV advertising cannot be replaced." Concluding, Sehgal urged the industry to shift the narrative. "We as the TV industry aren't doing enough to promote the strength of linear TV. The narrative about OTT and digital is trendy, and that's what everyone talks about. But television remains a dominant force. We need to change the conversation and reclaim its importance in media planning and brand strategies."
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