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In India’s marketing departments, the spreadsheet is starting to look more like a forecast than a report. Predictive analytics, once the buzzword of dashboards and data scientists, is now creeping into the ROI playbook and reshaping how marketers plan, measure, and justify spend. But for all its promise, adoption remains uneven, and the gap isn’t just technical. It’s strategic.
Russhabh R Thakkar, Founder and CEO of Frodoh, says the smarter marketers are already shifting their thinking. “Predictive analytics is being used, but not nearly to its full potential. The smarter marketers are applying it to plan media based on expected outcomes, not past performance. Inputs like regional spikes, time of day, and content preferences are shaping how and when ad budgets move.”
The emphasis, he says, is moving from retrospective optimisation to anticipatory action. “It is not about spending more, it is about knowing where the return will come from before the first rupee is spent.”
This isn’t just about better targeting. It’s about aligning marketing with finance in a way that traditional reporting never did. As Thakkar puts it, “Predictive models are helping teams prioritise lifetime value, not just reach or clicks. It brings marketing and finance to the same table with data that answers where growth will come from, not just where attention landed.”
The urgency to shift mindset is growing. According to the Adobe 2024 State of Marketing Tech report, over 68 per cent of Indian CMOs said they plan to integrate predictive tools into campaign planning within the next 12 months. But only 27 per cent currently use predictive models to guide real time budget allocation. The delta between ambition and execution is still wide.
Sunder Venketraman, Chief Business Officer at Oneindia, has seen this gap play out. “Indian marketers are steadily exploring predictive analytics for smarter media planning,” he says. “This could be from budget optimisation using MMM models to audience targeting, churn prediction, and even forecasting content performance.”
While large digital first brands lead the curve, others are still catching up. “Adoption is still patchy. Mid sized and regional players often lack integrated data systems or access to advanced tools. The gap lies not just in tech, but also in talent and mindset,” he says.
Mindset is a recurring theme. For years, marketers have built plans around historical performance, as in what worked last quarter, last festival, last Diwali week. Predictive analytics asks them to think forward, to bet on what hasn’t happened yet. And that requires not just new tools, but a new sense of accountability.
Venketraman believes some progress is finally visible. “Predictive analytics is starting to shift the focus from vanity metrics to business outcomes,” he says. “We have seen this for sectors like BFSI, ecommerce, and telecom, where LTV and churn matter deeply. The lens is not ‘what worked’ but more emphasis on ‘what will work next’.”
He adds that at Oneindia, partners are showing more interest in aligning ad delivery and content with the customer journey, indicating a move from transactional campaigns to relationship driven growth.
It’s not just the advertisers pushing the shift. Platform side evolution is also playing a role. With media mixes now spanning OTT, commerce, influencer led discovery, and programmatic display, ROI itself is getting harder to define without prediction.
“AI picks up on even the subtlest conversion factors that drive consumer behaviour and this is not only reactive but predictive and constantly improving,” says Varun Mohan, Chief Commercial Officer, India at MiQ. He draws a parallel with how search engine optimisation dominated the last decade. “Many retailers are taking on AI optimisation on their platforms. Brands must adopt a long term strategic approach to truly harness Martech, rather than focusing on short term gains.”
This shift isn’t just about awareness, either. According to Bain’s 2025 CX and Retention report, Indian brands using predictive churn models saw a 19 per cent higher customer retention rate year on year, compared to peers using only traditional post sale engagement metrics. Predictive ROI tracking is already showing signs of tangible business advantage.
Still, even the best tools need the right foundation. CDPs and first party data strategies are crucial for building models that are accurate and actionable. “What we’re seeing is that brands that unify data across apps, websites, and social media can build a more holistic understanding of their audience,” says Benjamin Chamlet, Director of Solution Engineering APJ at Twilio. He adds, “The real advantage comes from having accurate, up to date information collected with consent.”
Chamlet gives a practical example. When a consumer browses a product page, a smart system can infer purchase propensity in real time and offer a premium product or a context aware discount. If the shopper is anonymous, the app can reference lookalike behaviour patterns to deliver the next best action, before the user even clicks. “It’s not just recommendation, it’s orchestration,” Chamlet notes.
Vaibhav Velhankar, CTO of Segumento, links this orchestration to empathy. “Predictive product recommendations, dynamic pricing, and adaptive content strategies are helping brands curate journeys that feel intuitive to consumers,” he says. “It’s not just about automation. It’s about empathy at scale.”
And yet, most brands still optimise for the past. “The technology is working for engagement metrics,” says Gopa Menon, Co founder and COO at Theblurr. “But most Indian brands are still stuck in the conversion trap. They’re optimising for immediate sales rather than long term relationship building.” He believes the real opportunity of predictive analytics lies in solving unspoken needs, not just refining offers, but anticipating them.
That distinction is subtle but crucial. As predictive analytics matures in Indian marketing, it may not be the tools that define success, but the ability to let go of instinct led plans in favour of data led probabilities. In a world of real time signals and infinite scrolls, the smartest ROI move might be planning for outcomes that haven’t happened yet.
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