Google without Chrome and Android? What would digital marketing look like?

The ongoing antitrust lawsuit against Google, initiated by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), has raised significant concerns, not least in the digital advertising ecosystem, about the potential breakup of its core products, including Chrome and Android. Google's dominance of the search market is undeniable, given that the search engine processes approximately 8.5 billion queries daily.

A US federal judge recently ruled that Google violated antitrust laws, and the DOJ has thus indicated that it is considering a range of remedies to prevent Google from leveraging its dominance across different platforms, which may involve breaking up Chrome and Android from its search operations, thereby massively impacting digital advertising setups across the world, not least in India, where Google enjoys over 90% market share when it comes to internet browsing and Search.

However, Gopa Menon, Chief Growth Officer - APAC for Successive Digital, believes such a breakup, while possible, would be “unlikely and a long drawn process.” Nevertheless, the potential implications warrant careful consideration.

Market Dominance and Potential Disruption

The scale of Google's influence in the digital advertising space is undeniable. “Google has had a near-monopoly over most user insights—Android enables a staggering 70% of smartphones, and Chrome commands around 65% of web traffic globally,” notes Mohd Saqib Khan, co-founder and CEO of DigiXpressions Media. In India, the numbers are even more striking, with Android commanding 95.73% of the mobile operating system market and Chrome holding 89.3% of web traffic as of September 2024.

According to reports, in the current marketing universe 35-40% of the mobile ad market and 70-75% of programmatic ad transactions are controlled by Google. Its search ad revenue in 2023 was $206.54 billion, and part of Google's total ad revenue of $237.86 billion, which accounted for the majority of its overall revenue of $305.63 billion.

The potential separation of Android and Chrome from Google could fundamentally alter the digital advertising landscape. “If Android and Chrome were to split from Google, it could disrupt the seamless flow of data that advertisers currently rely on,” Khan explains.

“A breakup could lead to more competition in the ad space, as other players emerge to challenge Google's dominance. This could lead to lower ad prices and more choices for advertisers,” adds Menon. However, he cautions that such changes could also lead to “a more fragmented ecosystem with different platforms and standards, making it more complex for advertisers to reach their target audiences.”

Currently, Google and Meta together command nearly 60% of digital ad spending, with all other market players combined contributing only 40%. This concentration of power has significant implications for the Indian market, where Google India's FY23 ad revenue alone saw a growth of 12.49% to Rs. 28,040 crore.

Opportunities and Adaptation in a New Ecosystem

The potential breakup, while disruptive, could create new opportunities in the digital advertising ecosystem. Garima Vishnoi, Senior Vice President - Media Alliances & Partnerships at White Rivers Media, sees significant potential, noting, “This separation could spark heightened competition, empowering smaller ad tech companies to innovate and thrive. As a result, advertisers may discover fresh, effective targeting options that enhance campaign optimization.”

The transformation would particularly impact mobile-first strategies. Anurag Choudhary, Founder & CEO of Felicity Games, points out the potential shifts in the gaming industry, opining, “Without Google's centralized ecosystem, cross-device tracking could become more complex, weakening the ad personalization that many advertisers depend on. Businesses that have leaned heavily into Google Ads could face higher costs or a lower return on ad spend (ROAS) due to diminished precision.”

“With increased scrutiny on data privacy, a separated Android and Chrome might prioritize user privacy, potentially limiting Google's ability to collect and utilize user data for targeted advertising,” notes Menon, adding this could impact ad relevance and effectiveness.

Google contends that its market position is a result of superior product quality rather than illicit practices. However, the DOJ's focus on Google's contractual agreements and market control suggests a belief that such dominance stifles innovation and consumer choice. As the case progresses, the implications for Google's business model and advertising strategies remain uncertain but could lead to significant shifts in how digital advertising operates in a more competitive landscape.

Indeed, this disruption could lead to innovation. “A fractured landscape could encourage innovation in ad tech,” says Choudhary, adding, “We might see independent players rise, offering niche solutions that provide alternatives to Google's dominance. This could democratize access to user data and tools, potentially lowering entry barriers for smaller publishers and startups who have struggled against Google's ad budgets.”

The changes could also drive improvements in data privacy and transparency. As Vishnoi notes, “Marketers will need to navigate a diverse array of platforms, each with its own guidelines, which may complicate seamless campaign execution. Yet, the silver lining is the potential for more competitive mobile ad pricing, leading to cost savings for advertisers.”

Khan emphasizes the need for strategic adaptation, pointing out, “The split could create exciting opportunities for smaller companies to enter the digital advertising space. Picture a landscape where tech firms partner to create unique advertising alternatives.” He suggests that this could lead to more innovative approaches to user acquisition and engagement.

For mobile gaming publishers and app developers, the impact could be particularly significant. "Companies that rely on Android for user acquisition would need to diversify app stores—like Samsung or regional alternatives—potentially increasing costs for user acquisition campaigns," Choudhary explains. He suggests that companies might need to "build deeper relationships with alternate app stores, explore progressive web apps (PWAs), or adopt a stronger multi-platform approach to ensure we aren't over-reliant on any single ecosystem."

“With increased competition, companies might prioritize user experience to attract and retain users,” suggests Menon. “This could lead to better and more innovative mobile experiences. However, advertisers might need to diversify their mobile strategies, exploring alternative platforms and channels to reach their audiences.”

As the industry prepares for these potential changes, Khan indicates a call for readiness, saying, “The landscape is evolving quickly, and those who remain curious will undoubtedly find ways to thrive. The possibilities are nearly endless, and staying informed is essential to staying ahead.”

Menon concludes with a pragmatic outlook: “While the exact consequences are difficult to predict, I feel Google will hold on to Android and Chrome integration. But if changes do come, they could lead to increased innovation and competition in the digital ad ecosystem, ultimately benefiting both advertisers and consumers.”