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An early onset of the monsoon this year has caught several summer-centric brands off guard, forcing a rapid pivot in marketing and sales strategies. With rains arriving nearly two weeks ahead of schedule in many parts of the country, brands that traditionally capitalize on the summer heat, from cold beverage makers to air conditioner and ice cream brands, are now grappling with a shorter peak-sales window and shifting consumer behaviour.
According to experts, the brands may be seeing a 10-15% dip in sales this year because of this, especially when compared to a typical May.
Lloyd Mathias, Marketing Expert & Independent Director said, “This year, because the monsoon has arrived early and quickly impacted major cities like Delhi, Bangalore, and Mumbai, there’s definitely been a downward effect on traditional summer categories. These include soft drinks, air conditioners, ice creams, and other heat-driven products. I’d estimate at least a 10% to 15% dip in volumes, especially for soft drink brands, compared to a typical May. It’s a significant hit considering how critical this month usually is for those categories.”
He added that it’s been quite unseasonal and unexpected, so there’s certainly going to be downward pressure, especially in May, which has seen record rainfall across much of the country.
Ice cream and cola brands are expected to bear the brunt of seasonal fluctuations, as their sales rely heavily on impulse purchases, unlike more considered, high-involvement categories like air conditioners and other summer experiences.
That decline is already evident in real-time sales figures. Mother Dairy, for instance, has reported a 10% dip in growth this summer season. “The season started off very well for all our summer centric categories. April 2025 was a strong month, however, weather aberrations starting April end and in May have slightly dampened this momentum. Consequently, our projected growth for summer-centric products has come down by around 10% from what we had anticipated,” said Manish Bandlish, Managing Director, Mother Dairy.
This dip in sales is likely to impact urban markets more significantly than rural ones, primarily due to higher penetration and consumption of summer-centric products like ice creams, colas, and air conditioners in cities. Urban consumers tend to respond more immediately to seasonal cues, and with the early onset of monsoon, footfalls at retail outlets and impulse purchases have already started declining. In contrast, rural markets are less dependent on such discretionary spending and experience a more gradual shift in seasonal buying patterns.
As Rohit Ohri, Founder, Ohriginal explained, “Urban markets, in particular, have witnessed a significant decline in demand for items like carbonated beverages, ice creams, and air conditioners.” For instance, vendors in Trichy reported up to an 85% drop in sales of summer refreshments due to cooler temperatures and increased rainfall. Similarly, retailers in cities like Dehradun experienced a sharp decline in AC sales, with some reporting only 30-35% of last year's sales figures.
Recalibrating marketing strategies?
Despite the early monsoon dampening momentum for several summer-focused categories, some brands remain optimistic and prepared to navigate the shift. Bandlish highlighted the importance of operational resilience and seasonal preparedness.
“Having said that, such seasonal fluctuations are expected in our type of industry, and we are well prepared to handle the swing. Our operations are equipped to respond effectively in both the situations – peak summers and unexpected weather variations – and we remain hopeful to have a wonderful season for the balance of the year,” Bandlish added.
However, along with being prepared, brands must also recalibrate their marketing strategies, shifting from rigid seasonal campaigns to more agile, consumer-focused approaches. And even though aggressive marketing at this point is futile, they can definitely be more strategic in their approach.
Ohri said, “In this context, brands must exhibit agility in their marketing strategies. While some had already launched summer campaigns in anticipation of a hot season, the shortened summer window necessitates a reevaluation of messaging and timing.” According to him, brands might consider adjusting their narratives to resonate with the current weather conditions, perhaps emphasizing health and wellness aspects or promoting products suitable for the monsoon season.
Mathias added that digital campaigns, in particular, offer flexibility as they can be pulled back or ramped up almost on a day-to-day basis, depending on how the weather plays out. However, television, being a long-term commitment, is harder to adjust to, but with most categories now digital-first, it’s quite feasible to adapt quickly.
However, when it comes to a long-term picture, brands must be more agile these days considering the fact that abrupt seasonal changes have become quite frequent in the times we live in, experts noted. This adaptability will enable them to maintain engagement and drive demand even when seasonal disruptions occur.
Mathias explained that today, more than ever, agility is not an option - it’s a necessity. Thanks to digital, brands now have the luxury to tweak their messaging at different times of the day, personalize and customize campaigns, and respond in real-time to changing conditions. “Summer-dependent brands should look at refreshing their creatives as well - not just focusing on heat, but highlighting other attributes that can remain relevant even during rainy spells. The tools and platforms are there, so it’s very possible and expected for brands to be highly
responsive and adaptive.”
Boon for other FMCG categories?
While, a narrative is drawn about how the early onset of monsoon is dampening the demand for summer skewed products - there’s also a parallel story unfolding. Other FMCG categories such as packaged foods, umbrellas, immunity-boosting products, rainwear, shampoos and soaps are expected to see a rise in growth due to this seasonal fluctuation. This growth trend is further bolstered by improved agricultural productivity in rural areas, thanks to timely rainfall. A healthy monsoon not only supports crop yields but also boosts rural incomes, which directly translates into higher demand for daily-use FMCG items.
Krishna Khatwani, Head of Sales (India), Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. said, “As the FMCG industry navigates evolving market conditions, the early arrival of the monsoon and expectation of a good monsoon season brings renewed optimism. A healthy rainfall season is expected to enhance agricultural output and boost rural demand, which plays a crucial role in driving growth for various FMCG categories.”
Ohri echoed this thought and concluded, “the early rains are expected to boost agricultural productivity in rural areas, potentially leading to increased demand for everyday FMCG items like soaps and packaged foods. Brands should leverage real-time data and be prepared to modify their campaigns on short notice, ensuring they remain relevant and effectively engage consumers despite climatic uncertainties.”
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