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While 2024 saw the start of some significant changes in the search advertising landscape, which had long ago become something of a one-horse race, it is perhaps 2025 that will prove critical, with tech-tonic shifts. And some news that came out late last week may be indicative of the oncoming departures from the norm.
Google's global internet search market share has fallen below 90% for the first time since 2015, though admittedly by a smidgeon. In December 2024, Google held a market share in Search of 89.73%, down from 89.99% in November and 89.34% in October. This decline, while modest, marks a historic shift, especially when compared to July 2023, when Google commanded a robust 92% of the global search market.
This bit of news comes at the end of a very turbulent 2024 for Google, which saw both highs and lows, but was earmarked by legal issues and fines around the world, the least not of which is the ongoing lawsuit against Google filed by the U.S. Department of Justice, alleging that Google has illegally maintained a monopoly over online search and advertising markets, and has been described as the "most significant antitrust trial of the 21st century."
The significance of this trial becomes apparent when we consider the sheer scale of the search advertising industry. As of early 2025, the search advertising market is projected to reach a staggering US$417.4 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.67% from 2025 to 2028. This figure underscores the continued importance of search in the marketing mix, despite the rise of other digital channel.
Gopa Menon, Chief Growth Officer for Successive Digital, points out that one thing to keep in mind is that Google is still totally dominant, saying, “Almost 90% is still massive. But this crack in the armor shows us something's changing. People are looking beyond Google, and that's exciting. People want options, and AI is shaking things up.”
The Evolution of Search Advertising
Amit Verma, Founder and CEO of DigitUp, provides insight into the current state of search advertising. “There are two main types. First, there's functional search—things like shopping, travel searches for flights and hotels, health services, B2B inquiries, academic research, and general questions the public has for quick answers or specific topics. The second type is advertisement-centric search.” Verma emphasizes the simplicity of search advertising's core principle, saying, “The basis of search is simple: the more you pay, the more you are visible.”
Interestingly, retail media is rapidly emerging as a major player within the search advertising space, expected to reach $177.1 billion globally by 2025, potentially surpassing total TV advertising revenue, including streaming. This shift indicates a changing landscape where traditional advertising mediums are being challenged by digital alternatives.
Jacob Joseph, VP - Data Science at CleverTap, predicts a shift towards more personalized experiences. “By 2025, search advertising will likely focus more on user intent and personalized experiences rather than key word dominated strategies.” Joseph further highlights the impact of AI, stating, “The rise of generative AI, as seen in tools like SearchGPT and Perplexity, is reshaping user expectations. These platforms emphasize conversational and context-aware responses, moving away from traditional search results dominated by ads.”
Zooming in on the Indian market, we see a microcosm of this global trend with even more accelerated growth. The search advertising market in India is projected to grow by 10.11% between 2025 and 2028, outpacing the global average and potentially reaching a market volume of US$2.9 billion by 2028, from an estimated ad spend on search of around $2.2 billion. This growth is fueled by the rapid development of internet infrastructure and the increasing affordability of internet-enabled devices in the country.
Despite its global decline, Google's position in India remains remarkably strong. As of November 2024, Google holds an impressive 97.75% market share in the Indian search engine landscape. This figure underscores its dominance in a country where it has consistently outperformed competitors. The next largest player in India, Microsoft's Bing, captures only 1.34% of the market, with other search engines like Yahoo and DuckDuckGo trailing far behind.
The Future of Search
As AI-powered tools and alternative search engines gain popularity, the search advertising space is experiencing significant transformations. Simultaneously, the potential breakup of Chrome and Android from Google adds another layer of complexity.
Rahul Vengalil, co-founder and CEO, tgthr, says paid search was on a downward trajectory the moment AI came in couple of years back. While search will be very important to consumers and hence brands, the current way of monetising search is going to change in the coming days.
"Google will have to find newer ways in which ad formats. It could be a B2B solution for brands, it could be an enterprise AI solution for brands, based on data, or it might simply move a lot of retail ads to just Google Local or Google Maps. Simultaneously, they might come up with strategies to make display/discovery ads more effective and thus moving money there," he says.
Robin Thomas, Lead - Strategic Partnerships and Growth at White Rivers Media, predicts a significant transformation, saying, “AI-powered platforms like ChatGPT and Bing will lead this transformation, with a potential 50% decline in organic search traffic by 2028, emphasizing the need for AI-first optimization.” Thomas also highlights the importance of multimodal search, blending text, images, video, and voice, requiring brands to adapt to platforms like Instagram for discovery.
The integration of AI in search advertising is not just a possibility but an ongoing reality. Joseph notes, “Google's integration of AI (e.g., Gemini) highlights the shift toward intent-driven advertising, offering brands opportunities to align their ads more closely with user needs.” This shift towards AI-driven strategies is opening new avenues for advertisers to create more targeted and effective campaigns.
The potential separation of Google from Chrome and Android could have far-reaching implications for the search advertising industry. Sajid Shaikh, Group Account Manager - Media at SoCheers, sees this as an opportunity, noting, “A potential breakup in the market might foster opportunities for other players to enhance their market share in the search and advertising sector. Such a development could lead to more competitive advertising rates and an expanded selection of choices for advertisers, benefiting the industry as a whole.”
Menon says competition heating up could be good news. “More competition might mean lower ad costs. But it also means you have to be sharper, your ads need to stand out from the crowd. Think AI-powered ads, hyperpersonalized targeting... search engines will need to get creative to keep up. Users will bounce faster than ever, and so relevance, quality content, and a smooth experience are non-negotiable.”
As we move further into 2025 and beyond, the search advertising landscape is set to become more complex, competitive, and technologically advanced. Advertisers who can adapt to these changes, leveraging AI, exploring new platforms, and keeping user experience at the forefront, will be best positioned to thrive in this evolving
ecosystem.
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