On June 21, 2023, when Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the US, he told the media, “I’m tentatively planning to visit India again next year. We’re hopefully looking forward to bringing Starlink internet to India as well, which can be incredibly helpful for remote or rural villages in India.”

His long-cherished plan to enter the Indian market could be realized soon. The new Telecommunications Act that came into force on December 27 opens doors for administrative allocation of satellite internet spectrum, sidestepping traditional auctions, a victory for Starlink and other satellite internet firms who have been lobbying hard against the auction route.

Starlink, a global satellite network owned by Musk’s SpaceX, has applied for licensing of the global mobile personal communication by satellite services (GMPCS), which is currently being evaluated by the government, sources in the Department of Telecommunications say.

Moreover, “Project Kuiper”, promoted by Jeff Bezos-led Amazon, has also sought regulatory approval from the government to launch its satellite services in the country.

Once all licences and spectrum are in place, Musk and Bezos-led firms will be able to offer messaging services, voice services, and broadband to individuals and organizations in India.

“Any entity which wants to offer satcom services in India must get a GMPCS licence, approval from Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe, the space regulator) and spectrum from the DoT,” says Anil Prakash, Director General at SIA-India, a satellite industry body.

So far, the government has issued GMPCS licences to two players only - JioSpaceFiber and OneWeb. JioSpaceFiber is promoted by Jio and SES (Luxembourg-based satcoms player), and OneWeb is a joint venture of Bharti Airtel and Europe’s Eutelsat.

OneWeb has received IN-SPACe approval as well, while JioSpaceFiber is likely to get it soon. They can launch their services within weeks of spectrum allocation, Prakash quips.

OneWeb and JioSpaceFiber are competing for the first-mover advantage in the emerging Indian satellite communications market, which holds significant growth potential, positioning themselves ahead of competitors like Starlink and Amazon.

Notably, Starlink’s India subsidiary was incorporated in November 2021. The company had even started collecting advance money from customers but had to return it later after the government’s directive.

SatCom broadband market in India 

With over 800 million active internet users, India is the second largest online market (behind China), though an estimated 40 per cent of the population (nearly 560 million) does not have reliable terrestrial broadband services.

Consultancy firm Deloitte predicts a strong upward trajectory for India's satellite broadband service market. The market is projected to grow annually by 36 per cent, reaching a value of $1.9 billion by 2030, said the firm in a report.

Apart from connectivity, the presence of the SatCom network will also reduce India’s complete reliance on territorial internet.

“Unlike major countries, India’s near-total reliance on cellular technologies for telephony and broadband makes it vulnerable. We lack the fall-back option of Satcom services, which always comes handy during natural disasters, electricity outages, wars and other challenging situations,” a telecom expert said.

According to Prakash, 8-10 more players may join the race to offer reliable broadband services to areas lacking terrestrial connectivity.

Starlink and Project Kuiper 

While most satellite internet services come from single geostationary satellites that orbit the Earth at 35,786 km from the surface, Starlink is a constellation of over 5,000 satellites that orbit the Earth at 550 km.

Launched its first batch of Starlink satellites in 2019, Starlink currently has over 2 million active customers in over 60 countries, claims the firm.

Amazon’s Project Kuiper is still in the development phase and has so far launched two prototype satellites in October 2023. It is planned to be a constellation of 3,236 satellites that will orbit earth above 590-630 km.

Amazon expects to have enough satellites deployed to begin customer pilots in the latter half of 2024, as per the company website. The full constellation is expected to be launched by July 2029. Amazon has also struck a deal with SpaceX for the launch of satellites.

Data speed 

Starlink claims to offer download speeds between 25 and 220 Mbps and upload speeds between 5 and 20 Mbps. Latency ranges between 25 and 60 ms on land, and 100+ ms in Oceans, Islands, Antarctica, Alaska, Northern Canada, etc.

Kuiper claims to be around 30 per cent faster than terrestrial fiber optical cables sending data.

India offers one of the cheapest data in the world, it costs roughly Rs 14 per GB. The Satcom players have not yet disclosed their tariff.

Potential customers 

Satcom will likely be a small market for urban mobile consumers, however, private enterprises, MNCs, the government departments such as defense, maritime would be among the first to adopt SatCom. Individuals may also avail these services later on, says Prakash.

Can SatCom be a potential disruptor of the internet services market in the long run? Prakash insists it is not. India has a huge scope for each and every player.

Roadblocks ahead 

It is expected that the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) will soon recommend a pricing mechanism and set a reserve price for the satellite spectrum once a new chairperson takes charge.

The regulator hasn't had a chief since October 2023. The post was advertised a few months ago and the government is likely to zero in on someone very soon, insiders say.