Netflix–WBD Deal Could Redraw India’s Streaming and Cinema Landscape

As Netflix moves closer to acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), industry watchers believe the deal could become a turning point for the global entertainment business with India emerging as one of the most affected markets. According to a new analysis by Elara Capital, the merger would significantly reshape competition across subscription streaming (SVOD), advertising-based platforms (AVOD), theatres, and legacy broadcasters.The research notes that the combined muscle of Netflix and WBD would further strengthen Netflix’s already dominant entertainment positioning in India, widening the gap between premium SVOD players and the more scale-driven AVOD segment. The expanded catalogue spanning global franchises, films, and original IPs could help Netflix deepen its appeal across multiple audience segments at a time when consumption is consolidating around a few large platforms.

Elara’s report suggests that this sharpening of Netflix’s content profile could pull more share into SVOD while intensifying pressure on traditional TV broadcasters and smaller OTT platforms. With JioStar already commanding near-monopoly control of sports streaming, Netflix’s unrivalled brand recall in entertainment allows it opportunities to increase ARPU even in India’s price-sensitive environment. As Karan Taurani, Senior Vice President at Elara Capital points out mid-analysis, “Netflix’s recall advantage gives it headroom to drive ARPU despite pricing pressures.” Currently, Netflix holds roughly 25% of India’s SVOD market share, while JioStar dominates the AVOD space. The acquisition, according to the report, only reinforces this two-player concentration, strengthening their competitive moats. A major upside for Netflix will be the increased pipeline of movies, franchises, and IP assets, enabling faster development of India-made films tailored for both OTT-first releases and traditional theatrical formats.

The strategic value of sports rights especially the IPL may also intensify under the new competitive environment. Elara suggests that JioStar will face stronger pressure to retain post-2028 digital IPL rights to defend its AVOD leadership against a Netflix powerhouse armed with expanded entertainment offerings.Meanwhile, Amazon Prime Video could find its scaling limits tightening in a market now rapidly consolidating around Netflix and JioStar. Smaller OTT platforms may be forced into partnerships or content alliances  most likely with Amazon  simply to survive amid ballooning content acquisition costs and distribution battles.

For linear broadcasters such as Zee Entertainment and Sun TV Network, the outlook appears more challenging. With digital streaming still contributing only 10–15% of overall revenue, their ability to counter OTT competition remains limited, potentially slowing their future growth as attention and ad spends gravitate further online.The merger’s ripple effects could extend into theatres as well. Elara notes that Hollywood films account for 15–20% of PVR INOX’s Gross Box Office Collection (GBOC), with WBD titles contributing about 20% of that share, equating to roughly 4% of total box office revenue. Although English-language releases form a smaller volume slice, they punch above their weight driving higher food & beverage and advertising revenues for exhibitors.

The report cites Superman (2025) as an example: the film earned $395 million globally, but just $10 million in India, only about 2% of total collections. Because India forms such a small revenue contributor to Hollywood studios, Netflix may have room to experiment with release strategies locally, from shrinking theatrical windows to even attempting direct-to-OTT premieres for major WBD franchises as a way to push subscriber growth.Any aggressive shift toward streaming-first releases, Elara warns, could directly hit theatre chains still recovering from post-pandemic volatility. In a worst-case scenario where OTT-first tilt accelerates, the firm estimates a 4% revenue impact on PVR INOX by FY28E, with EBITDA potentially sliding by 6%.Overall, the Netflix–WBD deal paints a complicated picture for India’s entertainment ecosystem — strengthening global streaming dominance while adding pressure across exhibitors, broadcasters, and second-tier OTT players whose business models may struggle to compete in an increasingly consolidated market.