A shift in trend: Sensex sees a Black Friday high after a slow Thanksgiving

The Thanksgiving high and Black Friday dip reflected on the Sensex charting an intriguing narrative this year — starting with a muted rise on Thanksgiving (November 28) and surprising the market with an unusual rally on Black Friday (November 29).

For beauty and FMCG brands, the performance was a mixed bag, signalling the intricate dance between consumer sentiment, market saturation, and international dynamics.

Historically, Thanksgiving in India has brought positive investor sentiment, with an average Sensex gain of 0.44% over the past six years. True to form, this Thanksgiving saw the index rise by 47.56 points (0.06%), closing at 80,281.64. While the rise was expected, the muted growth hinted at cautious optimism.

Analysts attributed this to a combination of factors, including economic uncertainty due to ongoing global inflation and tightening monetary policies, which had investors playing it safe. With Black Friday looming, many consumers held off on big-ticket purchases, affecting premium beauty brands. Early reports from platforms like Nykaa also indicated a delay in major shopping activity, suggesting that retail footfalls were lower than expected.

Surprisingly, the Sensex bucked its historical trend of declines on Black Friday (an average drop of -0.80% over the past five years). It rallied by a robust 748.83 points (+0.95%), closing at 79,792.57. This unexpected upswing stemmed from several factors: positive cues from international markets, especially as the U.S. hinted at stabilizing economic conditions, which lifted investor sentiment. Furthermore, massive discounts on platforms like Nykaa boosted beauty sector volumes, with big names like Fenty Beauty, Kylie Cosmetics, and Victoria's Secret seeing brisk sales as younger consumers capitalized on deals.India's festive season, which coincided with Black Friday this year, also played a role in driving disposable income and spending on aspirational beauty products.

This year’s Black Friday sales in India painted a picture of contrasts, with some sectors thriving while others faced subdued growth. E-commerce platforms reported a significant 23% surge in sales compared to last year, driven by massive discounts on electronics, fashion, and beauty. Brands like H&M and PlayStation attracted dealhunters with reductions of up to 80% on apparel and gadgets.

The beauty industry also held its ground, leveraging platforms like Nykaa to offer up to 50% discounts on premium brands like Fenty Beauty and Sephora. However, the broader retail landscape struggled to maintain momentum, as market saturation and cautious consumer spending impacted offline sales. Globally, profit booking trends weighed on the Sensex, which closed lower, echoing international concerns over inflation and supply chain disruptions. While Black Friday’s growth demonstrates the increasing importance of global sales events in India, it also highlights the challenges of balancing deep discounts with sustainable growth.

Despite the broader market cheer, the beauty industry found itself grappling with challenges. Premium brands struggled with supply chain disruptions, with some reports suggesting that delayed shipments limited their ability to meet surging demand during peak shopping times. Moreover, market saturation played a role, with the sheer volume of discounts across various categories diluting the impact of beauty-focused promotions. Younger consumers, particularly those from Gen Z, drove much of the online shopping, but their focus was more on
affordability rather than loyalty to high-end, premium brands. This shift is reshaping the market dynamics for luxury beauty products in India.

International trends also played a crucial role in shaping India’s Black Friday story. Positive signals from the U.S. market, where Wall Street’s optimistic close fueled confidence, spilled over to emerging markets like India.

However, the European economic woes created a mixed international retail environment, influencing Indian brands with global ties. Additionally, early recovery signs in Chinese manufacturing bolstered global supply chains, which helped some beauty brands meet the surge in demand during late November. For beauty players like Nykaa, Estée Lauder, and HUL, this Thanksgiving-Black Friday saga offers several
lessons. Brands must adopt strategic promotions that balance deep discounts with preserving their premium positioning, particularly as younger consumers increasingly seek value. Supply chain agility is another critical factor, as overcoming logistics bottlenecks will be essential for meeting demand during high-volume sales periods. Additionally, leveraging data-driven campaigns will help brands craft targeted offers that resonate with specific demographics, providing a clearer path for sustained growth.

This Thanksgiving-Black Friday period tells a tale of resilience in India’s stock market and evolving consumer trends in the beauty sector. While the Sensex danced to an atypical tune, the underlying signals highlight the need for businesses to adapt quickly to shifting dynamics. For beauty brands, it’s a reminder that the stage is no longer local—it’s a global performance, and the audience is younger, smarter, and more selective than ever.