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India’s video market to reach $18 bn in revenue by 2026

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MPA estimated that the number of customers legally paying for online videos will increase to 230 million in the next five years from approx 100 million at present

India’s total video market, which includes TV broadcasting and video streaming platforms, will grow at 9.5% CAGR in the next five years to become an $18 billion revenue opportunity. According to Media Partners Asia, the size of India’s total video market currently stands at $11.6 billion.

“India’s total video market currently at US$11.6 billion will grow at 9.5% CAGR in next five years and will be one of the fastest growing video markets globally to become an US$18 billion revenue opportunity. A buoyant economy with a sustained 6-7% average growth in GDP will drive ad revenues both for television and online video. Growth in future subscription revenues however will come largely from online video. As the market expands, we will continue to see more consolidation, particularly in traditional television sector, but at the same time entry of new foreign players will continue to expand the video pie and the share of online video,” said MPA VP Mihir Shah.

India’s TV channel business which stands at $5 billion in 2021 is poised to grow at 11% CAGR over the next five years to $8.5 billion. “However, it is important to know that this is largely been fuelled by advertising, the subscription growth in the industry is under huge amount of pressure for broadcasters and also for operators because many have been shackled by regulations. And hopefully these will be eased in the coming months, allowing broadcasters to invest more in quality content for TV screens,” Shah noted.

MPA also projected that India’s online video ad revenue market will surpass the $1 billion mark this year. “Over last 24 months, besides YouTube, Facebook, and the large direct to consumer brands, we have seen new categories of AVOD players expanding the market. Short video platforms are a hit in rural India and serve as an important conduit for advertisers to reach audiences in these markets. Similarly, telcos which are proving to be future gatekeepers of content are now slowly looking to monetize their reach. So as these players across various buckets of AVOD services build scale, the market for online video advertising will continue to expand and grow at 16.5% CAGR or about 2.5x GDP growth over next five years,” he noted.

On the SVOD side, Shah said that subsidised telco bundles as well as growing investments in local original content have opened up the subscription market opportunity. “By 2026, India will have more than 200 million direct SVOD subscriptions or let’ say 1 in every 4 broadband subscribers will pay for online entertainment and sports content. In revenue terms, currently Disney, Amazon Prime Video, and Netflix despite having a combined 75% share of the SVOD revenue market, and continue to invest heavily to build their local slate of originals, with more depth and diversity expected in the future.”

He also pointed out that 30% of the content investments by OTT players go towards commissioning or acquiring local originals. This share in coming years is projected to increase to 40-45%. Further, the investment in online video content, including originals and acquisitions, is expected to reach approximately $1 billion this year.

Short-video platforms, Shah said, are spending hundreds of crores to build the creator economy. The aggressive investments by short video platform will help influencer marketing segment to triple from $120 million to $350 million. “Besides YouTube, platforms like MX TakaTak and Moj now have creator funds to the tune of 100 billion rupees each. Creator’s today are making on an average anywhere between US$2,500 to 65,000 p.m. depending on their popularity and target market. This is powering the growth of the influencer marketing segment in India which currently stands at US$120 million but should triple over next five years to US$350 million.”

The upcoming IPL, BCCI and ICC media rights renewals will reshape the competitive landscape in the video market, Shah said. According to MPA, the IPL media rights value is expected to more than double to $4.5 billion for the next five-year cycle.

“Coming up immediately will be the IPL auctions next month. At MPA, we value the next round of IPL rights at close to US$4.5 billion versus US$2.2 billion in the last cycle. Besides of course Disney, aggressive contenders include Reliance, Amazon, Sony and potentially, Facebook and Google. Given the expected inflation in value, we could also see players collaborating together to win the rights and shoulder the burden of rights cost. The final value and ownership of each of these rights can alter business dynamics and the current pecking order of players in both television and online video. The outcome of the renewal of these rights is something to look out for next year,” he stated.

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