Pitch-Madison
Media Advertising Outlook 2009
The Survey Methodology
The Pitch-Madison Media Advertising Outlook needs no introduction,
as over the years, the annual Survey of the national media and advertising
industry has become the industry benchmark. Into the Sixth Edition,
this year’s Survey assumes importance as the advertising market
saw some dramatic churns towards the end of the year, and the Outlook
projects weak sentiments for 2009. This year’s Ad Outlook has
the following elements—Review 2008, Outlook 2009 and Survey of
Marketers and Media Industry Leaders, both for the Review and the Outlook.
Review
2008
For the key media– Television, Print and Radio--Madison Media
crunched the advertising volume data from the TAM’s AdEx database.
Using its pricing benchmarks and insights from the ad marketplace, it
arrived at the AdEx size for January to November 2008. This data was
extrapolated to December 2008 to arrive at our 2008 AdEx estimate. Then,
Madison Media also estimated the AdEx flow into three other media--Outdoor,
the Internet, and Cinema.
The Survey notes that while during January-September the advertising
industry trends were stable, the last three months was a very turbulent
period. The Survey notes that ad spends dipped from October onwards,
and this trend is expected to continue in 2009.
The Pitch editorial team also spoke to leading players in the PR space
to understand how this marketing communication function is evolving.
Outlook 2009
As the November-December decline look set to continue into January 2009,
to arrive at the 2009 projections, we looked at the past five years’
trends as well as detailed feedback and did a sentiment survey with
the industry stakeholders such as media organisations and marketers
from across the sectors.
Marketers’
Outlook
Without the detailed inputs and views from the marketing fraternity,
the 2009 numbers would have lacked rigour and objectivity.
The Pitch editorial team and Madison Media conducted a survey amongst
the leading marketers to gauge their perceptions and outlook for 2009.
We polled leading marketers from diverse industries like automobiles
(Hyundai, Hero Honda), telecom (Idea, Tata Tele, Virgin Mobiles, Samsung
Telecom), consumer goods (Pepsi, Coke, Reckitt Benckiser), insurance
and mutual funds (HDFC Standard Life, UTI), and durables (LG, Samsung,
Whirlpool) among others. The opinions of the leading marketers formed
an important part of the forecast for 2009.
The Pitch editorial team and Madison Media also spoke to virtually every
major media player for their analysis of 2008, particularly the last
three months of 2008, and their outlook for 2009. The print industry
is represented by leading players like Times group, HT Media, India
Today, Bhaskar, Outlook, Delhi Press, Lokmat, Daily Thanti, Malayala
Manorama and Mathrubhoomi; the television sector is represented by Star,
NDTV, Aaj Tak, Zee, ESPN, Discovery, HBO, Cartoon Network, and Vijay
TV. The outdoor domain has inputs from market leaders like Selvel, JCDecaux,
Times OOH, OOH Media, Big Street, Jagran Engage, Tag Media, Live Media,
Prime Site, and Ogilvy Activation among others, and the radio sector
is represented by Radio Mirchi, Big FM, Radio City, Red FM, My FM, Fever
FM, and Friends’ FM.
The digital world is fully represented with inputs from Google, Microsoft,
Rediff, Yahoo, and Times Business Solutions among others.
Madison Media and Pitch editorial team then used the 2009 Outlook shared
by leading marketers, media houses, AdEx trends in November and December
2008, and its own insights to arrive at the advertising Outlook for
2009. Our Outlook projects a mere 2 percent growth in 2009.
Given the dynamic nature of the economy and hence the advertising market,
we plan to conduct a special mid-year review of our assessment. This
mid-year review of the Advertising Outlook 2009 will be published in
the July Issue of Pitch.
Significantly, we have given special coverage to what is loosely termed
as ‘Below-the-Line’ or BTL media. Almost all marketers unanimously
expressed that marketing communication tools such as ‘brand activation’,
BTL, ‘promotions’ would find a higher share of their ad
budgets in 2009 and beyond. In its special analysis of this evolving
‘Brand Activation Space’, we have looked at the need, size,
players and trends in this space. More coverage to follow in the coming
issues of this magazine.
